John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, went on Fox Business on July 7 to deliver what amounted to cautious good news: energy prices are falling, and the inflation picture is starting to look “a little bit more positive.” For crypto investors who’ve spent months watching macro data like it’s a season finale, this is the kind of signal that matters.
Williams described the Fed’s current policy stance as being “in a good place,” which in central banker speak translates roughly to “we’re not planning to do anything dramatic right now.” That’s notable context given that market probabilities currently show a 78.3% chance of no rate cuts happening in 2026.
The energy inflation spike was ugly, but temporary
US energy inflation surged to 23.5% year-over-year in May 2026, a number driven largely by geopolitical tensions that disrupted oil shipments. But Williams characterized the spike as temporary. The disruptions that sent energy costs soaring appear to be unwinding, and the New York Fed chief expects this relief to filter through into broader inflation readings over the coming months.
The CPI report, according to Williams, is showing improvement. That’s a meaningful shift from the narrative that dominated most of the first half of 2026, when sticky inflation kept the Fed locked into its current rate posture and traders kept pushing back their expectations for any monetary easing.
