U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has confirmed a new series of U.S. military strikes targeting Iranian military assets following Iran’s continued threats to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation involved fighter jets, naval vessels, and for the first time, one-way attack sea drones, aiming to degrade Iran’s missile and drone capabilities. This action comes amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions and a fragile ceasefire that Iran breached by attacking commercial tankers. The U.S. has emphasized the importance of maintaining open shipping lanes in the region despite Iran’s threats to close the strait.
The market response to these developments indicates a notable decrease in the likelihood that Iran will successfully target shipping around July 11, 2026. Market pricing for July 11 has seen a reduction in YES shares, now priced at 8%, down from 17% in the last 24 hours. This reflects a significant shift in perception, suggesting that participants view the U.S. strikes as effectively reducing Iran’s capacity to disrupt shipping activities. In contrast, the probability for July 13, 2026, shows a marked increase to 53% YES, suggesting participants may expect further developments or potential retaliation.
