The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out another round of strikes aimed at weakening Iran’s capability to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the third series of U.S. retaliatory attacks against Iran amidst ongoing tensions. The strikes are part of a broader U.S. strategy to ensure freedom of navigation in the crucial waterway, which is vital for global oil trade. The current crisis has seen a breakdown in the ceasefire and an escalation in military actions following previous Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.
Key Takeaways
The recent U.S. strikes appear to be consistent with efforts to degrade Iran’s capabilities to threaten shipping, suggesting a strategic move to protect commercial interests in the Strait of Hormuz.
Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of Iran successfully targeting shipping on July 13, with odds dropping from 53% to 7.6% YES.
The market remains highly supportive of a YES outcome for potential Iranian attacks on July 12 and July 14, with odds at 98% and 98% respectively.
