The International Energy Agency just took a red pen to its Russian oil forecasts, and the numbers tell a story that Moscow would probably prefer to keep quiet. The IEA cut its 2026 Russian crude production outlook by 200,000 barrels per day, bringing the revised estimate down to 8.95 million bpd.
The reason is straightforward: Ukrainian drones keep hitting Russian energy infrastructure, and the damage is adding up faster than repairs can keep pace.
Six months of decline and counting
Russian crude output in May 2026 clocked in at just 8.7 million bpd. That’s roughly 5% lower than the same period last year and a full 10% below Russia’s stated monthly production target.
This isn’t a one-month blip. Russian oil production has now declined for six consecutive months, shedding approximately 370,000 bpd from its November 2025 peak.
