Global major aerospace group Airbus expects total air passenger traffic to grow at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next 20 years, driven by a global gross domestic product that would increase by 2.6%/year. Urban populations would increase by 1.3-billion people, while the global middle class would grow by 34%, to 1.4-billion, over the next two decades. These forecasts were contained in the “Airbus 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast”.
This would lead to a demand for 42 060 new airliners between now and 2045. This figure would be divided into 19 820 to replace existing airliners and 22 240 to cover the growth in demand. Of the total, 81% would be single-aisle aircraft and 19% would be widebodies. The demand for latest generation airliners was driven by carriers’ desire to operate more fuel-efficient aircraft that produced fewer carbon emissions. Currently, latest generation aircraft accounted for some 39% of the global airliner fleet. By 2045, Airbus expected this to rise to almost 100%.
The manufacturer also highlighted that, globally, urbanisation was moving to smaller cities. And the number of these cities would grow at a pace nearly three times that of the larger cities. This would result in airlines being able to create new city pairings in their networks, between smaller and medium cities. These developments were being made possible by the latest generation of more fuel-efficient aircraft, noted the airframer.
