London — Airbus on Wednesday cut its 20-year global forecast for passenger aircraft demand by 1% after the Iran war and trade tensions slammed the brakes on what had been a strong rebound in airline activity since the Covid-19 pandemic.The world’s largest planemaker said it still expected robust jet demand, led by Asia, which is expected to account for about half of all deliveries, but back-to-back tariff and Gulf crises had taken the wind out of earlier growth projections.“That post-Covid recovery has effectively flattened,” Antonio Da Costa, head of market analysis, told reporters.The lowered long-term growth outlook points to a somewhat less buoyant aviation market ahead, as airlines trim their capacity growth plans in the wake of higher oil prices stemming from the Iran war.Jet deliveriesReviewing demand across the industry, including aircraft sold by rival Boeing as well as newcomer China, Airbus said it expected 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, down 1% from its previous rolling 20-year forecast.This includes 33,920 single-aisle jets in the busiest segment of the industry, which includes the Airbus A320neo family and Boeing’s 737 Max, and 8,140 wide-body or long-haul jets, both down 1% from the previous forecast.That is barely enough to accommodate announced production plans of Airbus and Boeing while leaving room for China’s competing C919 in coming years, suggesting recent widespread shortages of aircraft may eventually ease.Airbus said it expected a higher proportion of total passenger jet deliveries — 47% compared with the previous 45% — to replace older jets rather than increase the size of fleets.The European company revised its headline figure for passenger traffic growth upwards to 3.9% a year from 3.6%, but executives said this marks a downgrade from 4.1% on a like-for-like basis.Airbus did not provide a forecast for freighter demand.Indian marketThe world’s fastest-growing air travel market is India, where Airbus revised up its forecast for annual domestic traffic growth to 9.1% from 8.9%. It lowered its growth forecast for China’s domestic market to 4.7% from 5.4%.Airbus and Boeing say aviation has shown an ability to absorb shocks, from 9/11 to the financial crisis and Covid-19. But as air travel expands, the industry is maturing, meaning some long-term growth rates are starting to taper off. Airlines are also flying jets longer or squeezing in more people, while AI could further boost efficiency, Da Costa said.Analysts say forecasts from Airbus and Boeing underpin wider investment in aviation. But while they have proved broadly accurate, their composition illustrates how bets have evolved.In its latest forecast, Airbus highlighted the importance of secondary cities as it promotes small planes like the A220 and the narrow-body A321XLR, which can “bypass megahubs”.A decade ago, Airbus was touting the critical importance of “megacities” served by its A380 superjumbo, the world’s largest passenger aircraft, which has since halted production due to weak demand. Reuters