Bitcoin's recent rebound should be viewed as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal, despite improving demand and historically strong July seasonality, according to CryptoQuant.
The onchain analytics firm said bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded about 10% from last week's bear-market low of around $57,700 to trade near $63,000, reclaiming the $60,000 level as a key support area. The recovery has been supported by July seasonality, with bitcoin historically tending to rally during the month, particularly in bear-market years such as 2018 and 2022, CryptoQuant said.
"Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak," said CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno. "With Bitcoin entering July 2026 fresh off a bear-market low, this seasonal pattern skews the near-term risk toward further upside."
Bitcoin rebound
The rebound has also coincided with improving demand. The 30-day total bitcoin demand, which combines spot and perpetual futures activity, has recovered from its sharpest contraction since 2022 and is now close to neutral after falling by about 650,000 BTC in early June, CryptoQuant said. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May, the firm added.
