Bitcoin may find a bottom around $53,600, while demand conditions remain weak and a durable recovery is not yet in place, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
The $53,600 level is bitcoin's current realized price, or the aggregate onchain cost basis of all market participants, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said in a report on Wednesday. Historically, bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle, Moreno noted.
"Historically, it's a level that would confirm a bottom (the realized price). It doesn't mean that we necessarily hit it, but it is still a possibility, especially with bitcoin's demand weakness," Moreno told The Block.
The realized price was briefly breached during the FTX-driven selloff in November 2022 before bitcoin recovered, making it one of the market's key valuation levels, Moreno noted.
Bitcoin fell to a fresh bear market low of around $59,000 last week, leaving it just 9% above its current realized price of $53,600, but it has since recovered and is currently trading at around $62,150, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.
