Bitcoin clawed its way back to around $64,000 this week, its highest level in several weeks. Wintermute, one of crypto’s largest market makers and algorithmic trading firms, would like everyone to calm down about it.
In a market assessment dated July 6-7, the firm characterized the rebound as a “relief rally,” driven more by improving macroeconomic conditions than by any genuine resurgence in crypto-specific demand.
The case against getting excited
Wintermute’s argument boils down to a mismatch between price action and fundamentals. Bitcoin recovered from lows near $60,000 to roughly $64,000, a move that looks encouraging on a chart. But the firm points to persistently weak crypto-native indicators as evidence that this isn’t the start of something bigger.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which served as a reliable demand barometer throughout 2024 and into 2025, remain sluggish. Stablecoin activity, another proxy for fresh capital entering the ecosystem, hasn’t picked up meaningfully either.
