Bitcoin may be following a similar path to the March 2022 bear market, with demand weakening and market sentiment turning "extremely bearish," according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin's recent rally hit resistance at the 200-day moving average near $82,400 before falling back to as low as $76,000, CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, said in a Wednesday report. The move "directly mirrors" what happened in March 2022, when bitcoin rallied 43% from its lows before hitting the 200-day moving average and resuming its downtrend, Moreno noted, adding that bitcoin rose around 37% from its April 2026 lows before facing a similar resistance level.
"In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption," Moreno said. A failure to move above the 200-day moving average, as happened in both March 2022 and now, is historically "the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact," he added.
'Bitcoin demand has flipped into contraction'
Bitcoin demand has also turned negative. Moreno noted that speculative demand in perpetual futures, which was one of the main drivers of the April-May rally, slowed sharply after bitcoin moved above $82,000 and traders began closing leveraged long positions. At the same time, spot demand has been contracting at a slightly faster pace, Moreno said.
