The International Energy Agency just delivered a sobering forecast: global natural gas demand is set to decline on an annual basis for the first time since 2022. The culprit is a familiar one, geopolitical conflict pushing prices high enough to destroy demand.
The IEA’s April 2026 Gas Market Report paints a picture of an energy market under serious stress. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has sent natural gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since January 2023.
The numbers tell the story
Global natural gas demand growth has decelerated sharply. After expanding by roughly 2.7% to 2.8% in 2024, growth slowed to approximately 1% in 2025.
Europe is leading the retreat. By March 2026, European natural gas demand had fallen about 4% year-on-year. Two forces are driving Europe’s decline. First, prices have simply become too expensive for many industrial and residential consumers. Second, renewable energy generation continues to eat into gas-fired power’s market share.
