In her new article in the Institute for Security and Development Policy, published on July 2, Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, draws up four scenarios on the future of Nato.
Wieslander writes that discussions about how to organize European security – in light of the Russian threat and doubts regarding the US commitment to NATO – are occurring on two dimensions: “The first relates to the US security presence in Europe: Will the United States stay or leave? The second is about the nature of burden-shifting from the US to Europe: Will it be modest or brusque?”
Drawing on these dimensions, she explores the following futures:
Future #1: More Europe in NATO—the moderate version
“The Alliance will remain US-led, but European allies will shoulder greater responsibility and deliver up to two-thirds of NATO’s combined operational capacity for collective defense.”
