Nigeria is entering the second half of 2026 with its economy showing its strongest signs of stability in years. But a resurgence in inflation and mounting political spending ahead of the 2027 general elections threaten to test the durability of those gains.
The months ahead are expected to shape the direction of Africa’s fourth-largest economy. Businesses and investors in H2 2026 will determine whether Nigeria’s reform programme evolves into a sustainable recovery or faces another period of macroeconomic turbulence.
The first half of 2026 was characterised by cautious but measurable progress.
Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, broadly sustaining the momentum recorded in 2025, when GDP growth rose to 3.13 percent in Q1 from 2.27 percent in Q1 2024.
Although growth remains below the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) projection of 4.49 percent for the full year, economists say the expansion signals that the structural reforms introduced over the past two years are gradually filtering into the real economy.
