The extent to which the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) will restore Iran's oil exports is an open question. So far, the US sanctions waiver isn't doing much to shift flows from old patterns, and fuller sanctions relief hinges on the two sides making progress in fragile talks. But even the prospect of wider sanctions lifting shifts the focus to a more fundamental question: Who will control the system that produces, markets and monetizes those barrels, and what changes are in store? Right now, much of the financing, shipping and insurance underpinning exports flows through commercial networks connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or Revolutionary Guard.