With US sanctions temporarily lifted, is Iranian crude back on the menu?

On June 17, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the Iran war.

Alongside a commitment to reach a broader peace agreement over the next sixty days, the MOU includes a provision that waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and ancillary services—such as banking, transportation, and insurance—through General License X (GL X).

But what exactly does this sanctions waiver mean for Iran and the global energy market? We’ve crunched the numbers to give you our best estimate.

General License X won’t automatically bring Iranian oil back to global markets

GL X represents a meaningful easing of the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign launched after the first Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. Yet despite years of sustained pressure, Iran kept oil flowing through its shadow fleet and other sanctions-evasion mechanisms, with China absorbing the majority of exports while benefiting from deep discounts.