Russia Is Losing the South Caucasus

Aug 14, 2025

Ali Karimli

The recent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to dominate the South Caucasus may be producing the opposite effect: a total loss of control. But ensuring such a positive outcome will require ongoing, active engagement by Western leaders.

BAKU – The peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, announced recently at the US White House, is perhaps the clearest sign yet that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s heavy-handed interventions in the South Caucasus have loosened, and in some cases eliminated, Russia’s stranglehold over the region. Given Putin’s zero-sum view of world affairs, this loss of influence may lead him to take an even harder line in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks that US President Donald Trump is trying to kick-start.