https://arab.news/9xf84

After more than three decades of tensions, a relative calm has been achieved in the South Caucasus — a region long dominated by intense rivalry between Azerbaijan and Armenia and among global powers, namely Russia and the West. Last August, Baku and Yerevan agreed to put aside their war and take steps toward diplomacy, focusing on economic cooperation. But this fragile stability today faces a new risk as the escalating US-Israeli war with Iran brings new tensions to their doorstep.

The South Caucasus states were already navigating a difficult security environment due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Now, the Iran war appears to be spreading beyond the Gulf region, raising serious concerns for them.

On March 5, drones struck near an airport and exploded close to a school in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Iran. Azerbaijani authorities claimed the drones originated from Iran, while Tehran denied any involvement. In response, Baku announced it was withdrawing its diplomatic personnel from Iran and ordered its armed forces to full combat readiness, placing them at the highest level of mobilization.

The incident raised fears that it could spill over and turn into a broader regional confrontation.