The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has escalated tensions in the Persian Gulf, jeopardizing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States, according to reports from Al Jazeera. This escalation comes after IRGC strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, which have led to a decline in Iranian markets. The MoU, part of a ceasefire agreement signed on June 17, 2026, aimed to stabilize the region following the Iran-United States war that began earlier this year. Recent military actions, including strikes on U.S. positions and retaliatory attacks, threaten to undermine ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal and could potentially reignite conflict.
Key Takeaways
The IRGC’s recent actions appear to be undermining the Iran-US MoU, with market pricing reflecting increased instability.
Markets suggest a significant decrease in the likelihood of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by July 15, currently priced at 12.5% YES.
The news has not influenced market perceptions regarding Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential departure from Iran, which remains at 0.4% YES.
