The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked a tanker near Oman, allegedly using the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz with backing from the US Navy, according to social media reports. Additionally, Iran is said to have conducted a week-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with calls made for action against US President Donald Trump. These claims, largely unverified and contradicted by verified reports, emerge amidst ongoing tensions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments. The IRGC has previously issued threats against US assets in response to attacks on Iranian tankers, reflecting the high-stakes environment in the region.
The prediction market for the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 has seen significant shifts, with current pricing at 7.5% for a YES outcome, down from 14% just 24 hours ago. This movement suggests that market participants perceive the situation as increasingly unstable, potentially leading to prolonged disruptions. The reported attack, whether substantiated or not, appears to intensify the perception of risk around the Strait of Hormuz, impacting market sentiment about the likelihood of normal traffic resuming within the month.
