As populations in small cities shrink, government policy calls for centralizing services and remaining residents. Credit: Osaka Metropolitan University
As populations decline and age across the developed world, compact city strategies, which oversee the consolidation of urban facilities and guide residents toward transit-served hubs, have become mainstream policies. Yet most evidence about their benefits comes from cities that are already compact. Far less is known about the social costs that may arise during the transition to compactness in the small and medium-sized cities (SMCs) most exposed to shrinkage.
Associate Professor Haruka Kato at Osaka Metropolitan University's Graduate School of Human Life and Ecology examined the short-term effects of Japan's Location Optimization Plan (LOP), a nationally promoted compact city policy adopted by municipalities since 2016.
Using a nationwide quasi-experimental analysis of 1,595 SMCs from 2008 to 2022, the study estimated how the policy was associated with total population, intermunicipal net migration, and Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) certification counts, which give insight into municipal-level care needs and service burdens.
The findings were published in Sustainable Cities and Society.
