Honor's latest smartphones. [Photo provided to chinadaily.com.cn]
Global smartphone shipments are set to contract in 2026, although the premium segment of the trade will continue to expand as high-end consumers prove resilient to macroeconomic headwinds and rising memory chip costs, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank projects that shipments of smartphones priced above $600 will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5 percent from 2026 to 2028, reaching 402 million units by 2028. The premium segment's share of total shipments is expected to rise from 29 percent in 2025 to 34 percent in 2028, while its revenue contribution will climb from 66 percent to 76 percent over the same period, representing an 8 percent CAGR.
Goldman Sachs, which lowered its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast to 1.14 billion units — a 10 percent year-on-year decline — cited sustained memory chip price hikes and market saturation as key headwinds. Despite the volume contraction, the overall market value is projected to grow 3 percent to $596 billion in 2026, reaching $621 billion by 2028.
"Premium consumers' purchasing power is relatively insulated from macro fluctuations and memory price shocks," the Goldman Sachs report noted, adding that ongoing technological upgrades in high-end devices are generating additional demand.
