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THE reality of the Indus Waters Treaty isn’t that it survived three wars, but that it survived decades of misleading perceptions. While geography protects Pakistan’s western rivers, announcements of unviable dams and tunnels, paired with the ‘no water will flow’ rhetoric, manufacture panic in Pakistan and political mileage in India. The IWT endures not because of its character — which is blind to environmental and human rights — but despite manufactured fear. Since April 2025, there has been an announcement-withdrawal cycle. India has announced ambitious water projects, such as the ‘Chenab-Beas tunnel’ on the western rivers. With messaging about ‘stopping Pakistan’s waters’, the announcements lead to immediate coverage and domestic political capital.
The Indus river in Ladakh flows at high altitude through narrow valleys with an extreme sediment load, limiting large-scale storage. A Chenab-Beas tunnel would require tunnelling, which entails massive costs for a small quantity of water. Both ideas have reportedly been shelved quietly. The technical information gap fuels insecurity among Pakistanis while creating a perception of strength in India.
