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The U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but ocean supply chain networks are not expected to recover until mid-September 2026, according to a June 19 Xeneta report.
Beyond its regionalized impact, the Iran war’s broader effect on the ocean shipping market has led to oil volatility and upward pressure on fuel prices and ocean spot rates. In turn, the rising cost of fuel has prompted some ocean carriers to implement surcharges.
While full details and the timeline of the agreement are still unclear, the memorandum of understanding signed last week by the U.S. and Iran, per the Associated Press, sets a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal, which would include the reopening of the strait. The agreement also calls for minesweeping operations, which may require an extended timeline, according to Xeneta.
In a June 20 Truth Social Post, President Donald Trump confirmed that there would be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days during the ceasefire period. After the 60-period expires, the U.S. would only impose tolls if the deal isn’t completed.
