Kalshi market participants have significantly raised the probability that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels before August 1, now pricing it at 98%. This development comes amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began with Iran’s closure of the strait in February 2026. The blockade has severely restricted global oil flows, impacting 20% of the world’s supply. Despite a fragile ceasefire, shipping activity remains limited, with only a minimal number of vessels passing through daily. The increased probability of normalization appears indicative of potential diplomatic or logistic breakthroughs, such as successful negotiations or accelerated mine-clearing efforts.
Key Takeaways
Kalshi market participants appear confident in a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz shipping blockade by August 1, reflecting a 98% probability.
This high probability suggests that developments such as a ceasefire enforcement or mine-clearing advancements could be imminent.
The easing of shipping restrictions is expected to alleviate global energy supply concerns and improve market sentiment.
