The largest tanker operator has warned that the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will take several weeks to resume, highlighting ongoing disruptions in one of the world’s most crucial maritime chokepoints. This comes amid a severe blockade initiated by Iran following a US-Israel air conflict that led to the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader earlier this year. Current conditions show commercial traffic through the strait at near-zero levels, with significant delays in resuming normal operations expected. The market appears to interpret this development as consistent with extended disruptions, affecting the likelihood of traffic normalization in the near term.
Key Takeaways
The warning from the largest tanker operator suggests significant delays in the resumption of normal flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market pricing indicates a decreased likelihood of traffic normalizing by June 15, with a negligible YES probability of 0.2%.
The probability of normalization by July 15 has also decreased, with market pricing reflecting a 40% YES likelihood.
