Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants you to believe the US economy is about to rip. Prediction market traders would like a word.
On the CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi, traders are assigning roughly 14.2% odds that US GDP growth will land in the 2.6-3.0% range for 2026. That’s a pretty resounding vote of no confidence in Bessent’s stated goal of delivering growth “with a three in front of it this year,” a claim he made publicly on June 24.
The numbers tell a different story
The highest probability clusters on Kalshi sit squarely in the 1.6-2.0% range at around 26%, and the 2.1-2.5% range at roughly 24-27%. In English: the smart money thinks growth will be middling at best.
Q1 2026 already delivered a real GDP growth rate of just 1.6%. For context, full-year 2025 GDP growth came in at 2.1%. So hitting 3% for the full year would require a dramatic acceleration in the remaining quarters.
