This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 U.S. GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, supported by rebounds in government spending and AI-driven business investment, has anchored trader sentiment around the >2.5% outcome at 39.5% implied probability. Fiscal measures from the prior year’s reconciliation act and equity market gains continue to bolster private domestic demand, while tariffs and immigration policy shifts introduce offsetting drags on labor supply and consumption. Professional forecaster surveys have lifted 2026 projections toward the 2.2–2.5% range amid resilient final sales, though elevated inflation risks from geopolitical tensions could constrain the upper end. Key upcoming data releases will further shape market-implied odds for the full-year outcome.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productNote: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
