EIC upgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast
The EIC expects Brent crude to average $85 per barrel throughout the year as tension in the Middle East eases.
SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research centre under Siam Commercial Bank, expects energy costs will continue to propel inflation in the second half of the year even as the Middle East war shows signs of de-escalation.Although tensions between the US and Iran have begun to subside, the Brent crude price is expected to remain elevated compared with the pre-war level. In the EIC's view, Brent is expected to average US$85 per barrel throughout 2026, potentially falling to $80 in the second half, according to chief economist Yunyong Thaicharoen.
Meanwhile, the domestic diesel price is projected to average 35 baht per litre this year, falling from a peak of 50.54 baht in April.
EIC slashed average headline inflation to 2.6% for 2026, down from 3.6%. Consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.8% next year, lower than the Bank of Thailand's target range of 1-3%.
