Universities and colleges across the country have been dealing with a ticking time bomb since the Great Recession, and a growing number of them are saying that it’s about to go off, next semester.
A series of announcements over the past month by the highest offices of U.S. universities read like an obituary to a higher learning model that no longer works for either students or the institutions tasked with teaching. And that obituary has been authored in slow motion by the declining birth rate of the last two decades.
“Enrollment volatility is widespread, unpredictable and the ‘new normal’ for even strong, well-resourced universities,” J. Michael Haynie, Syracuse University’s chancellor, wrote in a note to faculty and staff last week, announcing the school had missed its undergraduate enrollment target for the next fiscal year.
“The fall 2026 enrollment shortfall carries real financial consequences—including a budget deficit, something the University has not experienced in quite some time,” he continued.
Many more schools are being forced into similar write-downs as enrollment plummets. In fall 2025, total post-secondary enrollment in the U.S. rose 1%, down from a 4% increase measured the year before, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. At private four-year institutions, enrollment last year dipped 1.6%.
