URC Grand Final: Leinster v Bulls, Croke Park, 7.30pm – Live on Premier SportsThe backdrop as well as the make-up of this Grand Final is uncannily similar to last season. A year ago, no one was quite sure what to expect from a Leinster side still feeling the aftereffects of a Champions Cup anticlimax as they sought to salvage their season with a first trophy in four years against a Bulls side seeking its first URC crown.In the event, Leinster rose to the challenge and produced one of their finest performances of the season. Their scrum was strong, their lineout excellent and the Bulls couldn’t live with Leinster’s high tempo or smothering defence. Leo Cullen’s side made 11 line breaks to one and outscored the South African side by four tries to one in a 32-7 win – the biggest winning margin of any final in the competition’s history.Leinster may have to scale similar heights again. Although they stayed calm and found a way to beat the Stormers in a very competitive semi-final – which has been a defining trait of their season – that probably won’t cut it against these Bulls.While this is the first repeat final in the competition’s many iterations, it is striking how differently these two teams line up compared to last year’s final here. Leinster’s scrum, which had a significant edge in the scrums that day, has been depowered by the absence of Andrew Porter, as well as Jack Boyle. They’re also missing Ryan Baird, who was completing a superb end to his season, and Jordie Barrett.It is worth noting that Leinster didn’t have Hugo Keenan, Rieko Ioane, Jamison Gibson-Park, Tadhg Furlong and Caelan Doris that day. So, you’d have to think that on balance they probably have a better side this time. Then again, outstanding though they were in last year’s final, they’re facing a stronger, more in-form Bulls side.As well as pitching up with five different forwards in a more confrontational looking pack than last year, the Bulls didn’t have double World Cup winner Handrè Pollard, or Stravino Jacobs and Kurt-Lee Arendse on the wings, with Canan Moodie’s threat now accommodated at outside centre. Furthermore, the Bulls arrive on the back of an eight-match winning streak and will be additionally motivated by the memory of not only last season’s defeat, but also those in the finals of 2022 and 2024 at home to the Stormers and Glasgow.Handrè Pollard eyes up a kick for Bulls during their URC semi-final victory against Glasgow Warriors at Murrayfield earlier this month. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho They have 11 Springboks in their starting line-up and Leinster simply could not meet a more motivated side. Away to Glasgow in the semi-finals, admittedly when the move to Murrayfield probably benefited them, the Bulls demonstrated that they could roll with the punches and find their way back into a game that the Warriors had dominated. From 21-3 down, the Bulls made inroads at the breakdown and scored some good tries to win 22-21.It tells us much about their scrummaging strength that 27-times capped Springboks tighthead Wilco Louw starts on the bench. If the forecast of heavy showers comes to fruition that is liable to make scrums even more of a factor, with Pollard the man to keep the scoreboard ticking in a final, despite his radar going unusually askew in the semi-final.The forecast might also work against the attendance – and the crowd will be a significant factor in Leinster’s performance, as was the case last year when 46,000-plus were engaged and vocal. Ticket sales had passed the 35,000 mark on the morning before the game and it is hoped the attendance will be in the high 30s or hit 40,000.This will be a last outing in blue for Jerry Cahir, Ioane and, of course, James Lowe, whose presence in the starting line-up adds to the prevailing puzzlement over his contract not being renewed. But it could well swell the crowd and inspire his teammates.Lowe is that kind of galvanising presence and as we saw in the celebrations for his tries in the quarter-final against the Lions, he has become a hugely popular figure with teammates and supporters alike.In the immediate context of this final game for Leinster, Lowe also remains a point of difference, be it his finishing, offloading, link play and hefty left boot – which worked a treat in this stadium a year ago. The more positive involvements he has in this game, the better Leinster’s chances. That possibility is enhanced by his telepathic understanding with Gibson-Park, which was not the case 12 months ago.Furthermore, although they had the world-class impact of RG Snyman to call upon last year, with Dan Sheehan, Jack Conan (who really carried the fight from the off in last season’s decider) and Garry Ringrose among the replacements, Leinster arguably have more oomph to use from the bench in steering them home.Leinster's Jack Conan scores a try during last year's emphatic URC final victory against Bulls at Croke Park, Dublin. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho Leinster’s protection of the ball was exceptional 12 months ago too, but the nagging concern remains that their handling hasn’t always been that crisp this season. This could be particularly costly given the Bulls’ obvious threat in transition due to the vision and creativity of Willie le Roux and the X-factor of Moodie and Arendse.The Bulls are hardened travellers and their tally of four victories over the course of a dozen games in Ireland is comfortably the best of any of the South African sides. There has also been a two-week break since their win in Murrayfield, but even so, rather than just stay on in Europe, the Bulls squad has had to undertake another long-haul flight from Pretoria. That is in addition to the flights there and back for their semi-final.That is the more demanding schedule, and while this is liable to be a much more competitive final than last year, if the crowd and Lowe are factors, then home advantage could help Leinster over the line.LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Tommy O’Brien, Rieko Ioane, Jamie Osborne, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Jerry Cahir, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Max Deegan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Alex Usanov, Thomas Clarkson, Diarmuid Mangan, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Garry Ringrose.BULLS: Willie le Roux; Kurt-Lee Arendse, Canan Moodie, Harold Vorster, Stravino Jacobs; Handrè Pollard, Embrose Papier; Gerhard Steenekamp, Johan Grobbelaar, Francois Klopper; Ruan Vermaak, Ruan Nortje; Marcell Coetzee (capt), Elrigh Louw, Cameron Hanekom.Replacements: Marco van Staden, Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Wilco Louw, Cobus Wiese, Jeandre Rudolph, Zak Burger, Stedman Gans, Nizaam Carr.Referee: Andrea Piardi (Ita).Overall head-to-head: Played 8, Leinster 3 wins, Bulls 5 wins.Betting: 4-9 Leinster, 19-1 Draw, 7-4 Bulls. Handicap odds (Bulls + 5pts) 10-11 Leinster, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 Bulls.Forecast: Leinster to win.