Futures rebounded from the post-FOMC selloff, and oil prices fell as Trump signed the Iran MOU two days early to end the war in the Middle East (in the symbolic Palace of Versailles of all place) and some energy shipments began to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As usual, tech led the parade higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.6%, but off overnight session highs, partly unwinding a more than 1% decline after Kevin Warsh signaled the Fed may have to raise interest rates this year to contain inflation; Nasdaq gained 1.3%; pre-market all Mag 7 are higher led by AMZN (+1.2%), META (+1.1%) and NVDA (+1.1%), reversing some of yesterday’s losses. Intel shares jumped more than 8% in premarket trading after Trump said the firm struck a chipmaking deal with Apple (a rehash of previous news but to this Pavolvian market, everything seems to be brand new). Overnight, the biggest headline was that the US/Iran MOU was officially in effect (final deal within 60 days, waiver for Iran to export oil, a $300bn reconstruction fund, terminating all types of sanction, per Axios). Bond yields are lower led by the long-end of the curve as 2y is still anchored by Fed commentary yesterday; 2y and 10y are -1bp and -4bp lower, respectively, the 10Y trading at 4.46%. The USD continues to climb with the DXY adding 53bp this morning. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war while WTI fell -2.6% to $74.78; precious metals are largely flat this morning. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1%, Meta +0.5%, Tesla +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Microsoft -0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%).Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 0.6% after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the iPhone maker plans to raise prices on its products to offset the increasing costs of memory and storage chips.SpaceX (SPCX) falls 1.7%, set to extend the previous session’s drop, as it wraps up its first week as a public company following a record-breaking listing.Accenture (ACN) tumbles 11% after the IT services company gave a revenue forecast for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.Albemarle Corp. (ALB) is up 1.8% after Citi raised its recommendation to buy from neutral on expected higher lithium prices.Enphase Energy (ENPH) rises 4.1% after Barclays raised the recommendation on the company to equal-weight from underweight, citing its push into selling solid-state transformers to data centers.Hive (HIVE) is up 15% after its subsidiary BUZZ High Performance Computing announced a partnership with Bell Canada, Cohere and Hypertec to build AI infrastructure in Canada.Iren Ltd. (IREN) gains 3.3% as Jefferies initiated coverage of the Bitcoin miner and data center operator with a recommendation of buy on artificial intelligence data center demand.Pfizer (PFE) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker said Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton will step down and leave the company on Aug. 15 for a professional opportunity in consumer goods outside the pharmaceutical industry.Rumble (RUM) jumps 15% after the online video network platform said it plans to operate two core business units: video platform Rumble and cloud and AI-infrastructure business Quake AI, formerly Northern Data.Four big June events are now in the rear view mirror — the first FOMC of the Warsh era, an Iran deal, the SpaceX’s IPO, and the first CPI print over 4% in 3 years. And yet, nothing appears able to dent the ongoing market meltup which is driven entirely by massive debt-funded capex spending into a handful of chip stocks. Ahead of the last trading day of the week for US markets, the peace deal is reducing the risk of further energy-supply disruptions. Stocks have largely shrugged off the turmoil and continued to notch record highs on the back of relentless enthusiasm for AI. Equity markets have come through the tests posed by the debut of SpaceX, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair and the US-Iran peace deal fairly unscathed, said Raphael Thuin, head of capital market strategies at Tikehau.“With the MOU now signed, there’s reason to believe that we may be close to or past peak inflation,” Thuin said. “The market will be able to concentrate on earnings again, like for Micron next week.”Bond investors, however, face the prospect of lingering risks that may keep the higher-for-longer rates narrative intact. Even though US gasoline prices have dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, energy costs have only been one factor in keeping inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s target.US gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, providing relief to consumers after global supply disruption sent fuel costs soaring. In contrast, inflation pressures are likely to hit people in the pocket if they want to buy a new iPhone later this year, with Apple’s Tim Cook telling the Wall Street Journal that the company plans to raise prices to offset surging memory and storage chip costsDespite lower oil prices, front-end Treasury yields remained at their highest level since February 2025, with traders cementing bets for a September US rate hike. In the UK, the yield on two-year gilts jumped six basis points to 4.2%, while the Bank of England kept guidance that it “stands ready to act” on inflation and left its key rate unchanged. The dollar extended gains.A quick look back at the Fed decision: Wednesday’s Fed decision marked the fourth consecutive meeting in which policymakers left rates unchanged. Officials described economic growth as “solid” and highlighted strong productivity gains and capital investment, while making clear that inflation has become a greater concern than labor-market weakness. Warsh has been critical of over-communication and poor forecasting by the Fed, and the new regime is moving away from explicit forward guidance - investors can no longer rely on central bank signals and will have to price in policy uncertainty. The S&P 500 has historically faced challenges following changes in leadership at the Fed. “Half the committee is expecting rate hikes this year, which is a real shot across the bow at the market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. “I think they’re getting ready for rate hikes.”As for SpaceX, the company is seemingly sucking retail investors back into equities, flows into US equity ETFs have risen rapidly, notching the second highest-ever monthly flow, Bloomberg notes. Based on the price target of an initiation of coverage by Arete analyst Andrew Beale, SpaceX gets an implied $5.3 trillion valuation by end of 2027.European stocks are missing out on the rally, with the Stoxx 600 down by 0.4%, dragged lower by the mining and autos sectors. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:Edenred shares soar as much 18%, hitting their highest level since early November, after the payment solutions firm confirmed it has been approached by investment funds in the wake of a report of takeover interest from BC PartnersGenerali shares rose as much as 3.3%, the most in 14 months, after newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported that UniCredit has informally proposed exchanging a 10% stake held by the Del Vecchio family holding Delfin in the insurer with its own sharesOxford Instruments rises as much as 4.4% as Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from add and installs a new Street-high price target, based on durability of growth and scope for further operating leverageMan Group shares rise as much as 3.4% to the highest since 2011 as BNP Paribas analysts upgrade their rating on the hedge fund manager to outperform from neutral and raise their target priceInforma shares rise as much as 3% as Morgan Stanley said the company has navigated the first five months of its financial year well, with strong results from its Live B2B Events and Academic Markets unitsSSP advances as much as 5.1%, to the highest in eight weeks, after Davy initiates on the airport-focused food and beverage outlet operator with an outperform recommendation and 225p price targetSkistar climbs as much as 11%, the most since March 2025, after reporting third-quarter results which DNB Carnegie says show good cost mitigation and decent future pre-bookingsTesco shares fall as much as 3.7% to their lowest level in two weeks after the UK’s biggest supermarket reported earnings which missed analyst expectations for like-for-like salesCarrefour drops as much as 6.6% as JPMorgan places the French supermarket operator on a negative catalyst watch, saying first-half results on July 23 “might turn out to be a downgrade event”Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose as oil prices eased after President Donald Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% to set an intraday record, boosted by gains in tech names including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. South Korea led advances in the region, with shares also rising in Taiwan and Japan. Crude prices continued to fall after Trump said a memorandum of understanding with Iran has taken effect, helping to ease inflation concerns for energy importing countries and offsetting hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A gauge of tech shares in Asia rose to a new high.Elsewhere in Asia, central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines — two economies hit hard by the sharp increase in global oil prices following the Iran war — both hiked their policy rates on Thursday. Indonesian stocks held losses, while Philippine shares pared gains.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reverses an earlier decline, sending the euro below $1.15. The BOE, Switzerland, and Norway’s central banks all held rates. In rates, treasuries curve-flattening sparked by Wednesday’s hawkish Fed meeting extends as 2-year rises back toward highest levels since February 2025 — and within 25bp of the 10-year — while 30-year is more than 6bp lower on the day. Treasury 2-year is more than 2bps cheaper on the day while 10-year is nearly 3bp richer near 4.46% after touching 4.44% during London morning. US 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are 5bp and 6bp tighter respectively, after narrowing 8bp and 11bp to multi-month lows Wednesday. UK front-end underperforms, holding losses after Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” UK 2-year, 6bp cheaper on the day, had muted reaction to Bank of England policy announcement decided by 7-2 vote.In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 2%, off session lows after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian released details on the text of the memorandum of understanding ending US attacks. Brent slid 1.4% to around $78.50 a barrel and touched its lowest level since the start of the war as three laden oil vessels controlled by Saudi Arabia’s state tanker giant switched on their signals in the Gulf of Oman after being stuck inside the Persian Gulf since the conflict began. US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims, June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), May Leading Index (10am) and April TIC flows (4pm)Market SnapshotTop Overnight NewsAn impending wave of oil that’s been trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz is set to be unleashed on Asia, suddenly swamping a region that had managed to make up for lost supply in recent weeks. BBGThe average price of U.S. gasoline fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time in months, after Iran and the United States signed a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to a fraction of a penny below $4, down from $4.03 the day before, according to the AAA motor club. NYTThe MSCI China Index is on the cusp of a bear market, pressured by weakness in tech and consumer stocks. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags on the day. BBGThe Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was “encouraging.” Two of the nine policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent inflation: BBGThe SNB left its key rate at zero as expected and said it retained its heightened readiness to sell the franc. Separately, the Swiss government trimmed its growth predictions for 2026 and next year, while slightly raising its inflation outlook. BBGBrussels has opened communication channels with the Kremlin in recent weeks to scope out the potential for talks to end the war in Ukraine, as European capitals debate whether to engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. FTNorges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, as expected, but said it would likely be necessary to hike at one of the forthcoming meetings. Norges BankThe U.K.’s unemployment rate inched down in the three months through April while wage growth remained flat, with continued weakness in the labor market reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold. WSJMicrosoft Corp. has built a big business selling AI models to Chinese companies despite the growing rivalry between the US and China over artificial intelligence. ByteDance Ltd. has generally been Microsoft’s biggest AI customer in recent years, largely using OpenAI models, and is on track to spend more than $1 billion a year on Microsoft AI and cloud services. BBGU.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday that Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture its ‌chips in the United States. RTRSIran HeadlinesTechnical talks between the US and Iran will be held in Zurich on Friday, Al Hadath reported citing sources. Talks will include the legal aspects related to lifting Iranian sanctions, the issue of frozen funds and the Iranian nuclear file. Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will also attend the talks. An unannounced negotiation session will discuss issues related to Lebanon and Hezbollah.The fifth round of US-Iran negotiations will discuss Israel's withdrawal along with a timetable for the experimental zone, Al Hadath reported citing a Lebanese source. The source added that the US-Iranian agreement will intensify pressure on Israel to gradually withdraw and that there will be no retreat from restricting weapons to the state and deploying the army in the south. Lebanon is proceeding with direct negotiations with Israel.Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed that the US and Iran will meet on Friday for initial talks on MoU execution.The Swiss government, following the Iranian commentary, said the plan as it stands is still for the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to meet on Friday in Switzerland to commence talks.US War Secretary Hegseth said they are to review where the right place for basing is, when the Strait of Hormuz opens and are prepared to resume strikes and blockade if Iran does not comply with MoU.US official said the Iran MoU was signed digitally on Sunday by US VP Vance and Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf, which was witnessed by US President Trump, while the US official said Iran MoU was signed on Wednesday by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.US official says that Iran is to arrange safe, no-charge passage through Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, according to CNBC.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the MoU between the US and Iran was decided to be signed digitally, while the plan for negotiating teams in Geneva remains in place, but there will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland. Baghaei stated that the 60-day period had started and that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, while he also commented that the US has begun lifting the blockade on Iranian ships and that no enriched nuclear material will be sent abroad, and the dilution of nuclear material remains an option. Furthermore, he said Iran will reciprocate if the US fails to honour commitments, and that Iran is to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz safety services, as well as stated that Iran and Oman are to manage the Strait of Hormuz security, and noted that Switzerland talks with the US are not yet certain.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments. The spokesman also said that the 60-day period starts today, according to the text.Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, but this does not mean acting against international laws or maritime navigation, while he added that payment for services through the Strait of Hormuz has been established in the MoU and that USD 300bln has been allocated to be invested in Iran, part of which will be spent on reconstruction. Furthermore, he said Iran's action is contingent on US compliance, with Iran to pursue action-for-action policy, as well as separately commented that Tehran can target ships entering Hormuz if needed, and that Tehran has sovereign rights to charge Hormuz tolls.Source on Telegram posted that several IRGC boats were engaged in unspecified activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and that a US ship broadcast a warning message in Persian to tell them to cease operations and return to port, or else the US Navy would attack them.An Israeli official said Israel has no intention of backing down on its positions and are holding stubborn negotiations with the US over its presence in southern Lebanon.Israeli military operations reportedly continue in Lebanon despite the MoU, while Israel opposes Lebanon ceasefire terms in the US-Iran agreement, according to Al Jazeera.A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewsquawkAPAC stocks traded mixed as the region reflected on recent key events, including the hawkish FOMC and Fed chair Warsh's first presser, in which the Fed kept rates unchanged, removed forward guidance, emphasised price stability, and provided hawkish dot plots. This triggered selling in stocks, treasuries and gold, while it boosted the dollar and yields, with money markets now fully pricing in an October hike. Nonetheless, some of the moves have since been pared, to varying degrees, as oil prices gradually declined following the announcement that the US and Iran have signed the MoU for ending the war, which is now in effect, but with the planned talks on Friday in Switzerland, said to not yet be certain. ASX 200 was subdued with most sectors in the red and the declines were led by tech and miners.