The Bank of England is set to deliver its latest interest rate decision on June 18, and prediction markets are pricing in over 99% probability that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep the Bank Rate parked at 3.75%.
If confirmed, it would mark the fourth consecutive meeting where the MPC chose to hold. The last time the Bank of England actually moved rates was December 2025, when it cut from 4% to 3.75%. Since then, the MPC has held steady through January, March, and April of this year.
The UK’s current inflation rate sits at 2.8%, meaningfully above the Bank’s 2% target. That overshoot has made policymakers reluctant to ease further. Governor Andrew Bailey has pointed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving Iran as a key source of uncertainty. The conflict has disrupted energy supplies, which feeds directly into consumer prices.
Bailey has signaled that the committee is prioritizing its assessment of these external economic shocks over any desire to continue cutting rates.
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