The Bank of England is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate parked at 3.75% when the Monetary Policy Committee delivers its decision on June 18. Market consensus is firmly in the “no change” camp, and for once, the reasoning is pretty straightforward: inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to justify another cut, and definitely not hot enough to warrant a hike.
UK CPI inflation sits at 2.8% as of May 2026. That’s down from the eye-watering levels of 2023 and 2024, but still meaningfully above the BoE’s 2% target.
Why the hold makes sense (and why one MPC member disagrees)
The April MPC vote was 8-1 in favor of holding rates steady. The lone dissenter was Huw Pill, who pushed for a 25 basis point hike. That split matters because it tells you something about the internal debate at Threadneedle Street.
Governor Andrew Bailey and the majority of the committee appear content to wait for more data before making their next move. The logic is defensible: rates have already come down significantly from their peak levels between 2023 and 2025, and the lagged effects of previous cuts are still working through the economy.
