Canada and the United States wrapped up a lengthy bilateral meeting at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, agreeing to keep talking about the future of their trade relationship. The core issue: whether the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade deal that governs over 70% of Canadian exports to the US, will survive its upcoming review.

The two sides described the talks as productive, with a 30-day window now set for further negotiations. That timeline puts the next major checkpoint right around July 1, which happens to be the USMCA’s critical review deadline.

What’s actually at stake

The USMCA replaced NAFTA in 2020 and includes a built-in six-year review process, which is now entering its most consequential phase.

Canada has formally requested a 16-year renewal, a move that would provide long-term certainty for businesses on both sides of the border.