For the first time in years, markets are seriously contemplating the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates could be up, not down.
Kevin Warsh officially took office as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell after a narrow Senate confirmation vote of 54-45 on May 13. His arrival has fundamentally reshuffled the deck on rate expectations, with forecasts now pointing toward at least a 25-basis-point increase sometime later this year.
From rate cuts to rate hikes
Before Warsh’s confirmation, the prevailing consensus leaned toward eventual rate cuts. Now, persistent inflation concerns and Warsh’s known hawkish tendencies have investors recalibrating in the opposite direction.
Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2026. Most analysts expect rates to remain unchanged at that gathering.
