The Federal Reserve just told markets to stop waiting for rate cuts. In Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed chair, the central bank held rates steady but rewrote its forward guidance in a way that has investors recalibrating everything from bond portfolios to crypto allocations.
The FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17, 2026 meeting. That part was expected. What wasn’t expected, or at least what many were hoping wouldn’t happen, was the removal of language suggesting the Fed was biased toward future rate cuts.
The dot plot tells the story
The median year-end 2026 projection climbed to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the March projections. In English: the typical Fed official now thinks rates need to go up, not down, before December.
Nine out of eighteen FOMC participants now expect at least one rate hike before the year is out. That’s half the committee. Three months ago, the prevailing assumption among traders was that the next move would be a cut.
