The US-Iran peace framework announced around June 14-15 did exactly what markets hoped it would do to oil prices. Brent crude dropped more than 5%, settling near $82.84-$82.91 per barrel. The problem is what it hasn’t done to the price you actually pay at the pump.
US gasoline prices sit at a national average of roughly $4.07 per gallon. That’s down from the $4.56 peak earlier this year, but still about 36.6% higher than pre-war levels below $3.
How we got here
The conflict traces back to late February 2026, when US-Israel military actions against Iran triggered a chain reaction that shut down the Strait of Hormuz. That waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil trade.
Brent crude spiked to between $112 and $120 per barrel by early April 2026. US gasoline prices surged more than 50% from their pre-conflict baseline, hitting that $4.56 per gallon peak.
