The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 1% at its June 15-16 meeting, a level the country hasn’t seen in over three decades. For crypto investors, the timing couldn’t be more interesting, or more nerve-wracking.
Every BOJ rate hike since March 2024 has preceded a Bitcoin price decline ranging from 18% to 32%. Four hikes, four drawdowns. That’s not a coincidence worth ignoring.
What’s happening in Tokyo
The BOJ currently holds its policy rate at 0.75%, after raising it from 0.50% in December 2025. A move to 1% would mark the fifth increase in a tightening cycle that began in March 2024, when Japan finally started unwinding decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.
The drivers are familiar: persistent inflation, a weakening yen, and rising energy costs tied to geopolitical friction.
