JPMorgan’s trading desk, one of the most closely watched sentiment gauges on Wall Street, has shifted to a bullish stance on US stocks. The catalyst: a ceasefire agreement involving the US, Israel, and Iran that has injected fresh optimism into markets rattled by months of geopolitical anxiety.
The pivot is significant because just weeks earlier, the same desk was telling clients to brace for downside. In March 2026, the team had adopted an explicitly bearish outlook, citing escalating conflict risks, inflation fears, and the very real possibility that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could choke global energy supplies.
From bearish to bullish in a matter of weeks
The trading desk’s reversal came in early April 2026, shortly after the ceasefire deal was announced. The agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a massive share of the world’s oil supply flows. With that supply risk suddenly off the table, the desk flagged expectations for a relief rally driven by strong earnings forecasts and renewed market confidence.
The bullish call held even when the diplomatic picture got messier. By mid-April, Iran negotiations had reportedly stalled, but the desk maintained its optimistic positioning, with the desk’s bullish stance confirmed as of April 13, 2026.
