Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney just said the quiet part out loud about why Washington isn’t touching the structure of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Changing it would force a vote in Congress, and apparently nobody on the American side wants that headache.
The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in 2020, faces a mandatory review deadline of July 1, 2026. And the closer that date gets, the more consequential every negotiating posture becomes.
The congressional vote problem
Carney’s comments highlight a dynamic that gives Canada and Mexico a peculiar form of leverage. If the US wants to preserve the existing framework without legislative drama, it has to work within the current structure.
The stakes are enormous. Roughly 70% of Canadian exports flow to the US, making the USMCA less of a trade agreement and more of an economic lifeline for Ottawa.
