In times past, when we wanted to know which team would win the World Cup, we had to turn to seers with crystal balls, use divination via tea leaves, or hope for Paul the Octopus to tell us what would happen.
But modern data science can provide a better alternative. As part of a team of statisticians, I helped train a machine learning algorithm to predict the most likely course of the tournament.
Probabilistic forecasts and loaded dice
The algorithm we built proceeds in two steps.
In the first, sophisticated statistical models and expert insight from bookmakers and transfer markets are combined to determine the strengths of all teams and their players. In the second step, a machine learning algorithm decides how to best combine the strength estimates with other information about the teams.
