If you’re a sports fan new to soccer but accustomed to American dominance in international competitions like the Olympics, it’s natural to ask: Can the United States actually win the World Cup?Here is your answer: No, almost certainly not. You would have better luck picking a winner if you pulled one of the other 47 nations out of a hat.The idea that the U.S. might win the World Cup is roughly the same as the possibility that the New York Giants will win the Super Bowl next February, at least as estimated by betting markets.It’s like the Boston Red Sox, currently last in their division, winning the World Series this October.And it’s similar to the possibility that Tottenham, the Premier League team that narrowly avoided relegation this past season, can turn its fortunes around so dramatically that it will win the title next year.These examples are all broadly comparable to the likelihood our forecast gives the United States of winning the tournament: about 1.2 percent. To help you contextualize that number, we’ve compiled some similarly improbable events from both sports and everyday life:

What’s about as likely as the U.S. winning the World Cup An NHL game features a player scoring four goals or more0.3%An NFL punt is blocked0.5%Dallas has an inch of snow or more on Christmas Day0.5%An FBS college football team goes undefeated0.5%An NBA game features a player scoring 55 points or more0.6%An MLB game goes to 12 innings0.7%A flipped coin lands on heads seven times in a row0.8%A team scores six goals or more in a Premier League game1.1%A boy born in the U.S. is named Liam1.1%The United States wins the World Cup1.2%A No. 16 seed beats a No. 1 seed in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament1.2%An American household has seven people or more1.4%An NFL play results in a turnover1.6%A U.S. resident is from South Carolina1.6%A domestic flight in the U.S. is canceled1.7%An NHL team has no Swedes1.9%An NFL kicker misses a field goal of 29 yards or less2.0%An MLB game ends with a walk-off home run2.3%An NBA half-court shot goes in2.3%A Premier League game features a player scoring a hat trick2.9%Two consecutive penalty kicks are missed in the Premier League3.0%A child born in the United States is a twin3.1%A team trailing by 20 points or more at halftime of an NBA finals game wins4.3%An NFL kicker misses an extra-point attempt4.9%