The largest sports event of the year, the FIFA World Cup, will kick off, literally and figuratively, today in Mexico City.
With so many big names chasing the trophy, there is no shortage of favorites. Yet, moving beyond the pub debate and into quantitative analysis, things get complicated very quickly.
Limited data, massive uncertainty, emotional decision-making, and unpredictable shocks… It’s not all that different from forecasting financial markets, and that is precisely what makes BCA Research's exercise so fascinating.
One of the top investment research institutions has been working on a World Cup prediction framework for nearly a decade. Their two-step model correctly predicted Lionel Messi and Argentina’s triumph at the 2022 World Cup. Yet, now it faces an even tougher assignment.
The 2026 World Cup is bigger than anything football has seen before. The tournament has expanded to 48 teams and a new round of 32 created an additional knockout hurdle.
