Oil prices dropped and equities climbed after President Donald Trump signaled that a deal with Iran could be imminent, describing the potential agreement as a “very, very good deal” and suggesting it could be signed within days. Brent crude fell roughly $4 to $7 per barrel on the news, while stock markets caught a tailwind from investors pricing in lower geopolitical risk.
Here’s the thing: Iran’s own officials have been considerably less enthusiastic, calling specific deal frameworks “speculative” and unapproved. No final memorandum has been signed.
What Trump said and how markets moved
Over a three-day window from June 9 to June 11, Trump made several public statements indicating a breakthrough could arrive “very soon, maybe over the weekend.” The rhetoric was characteristically bold, framing the prospective agreement as a “great settlement” that could reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The multi-dollar-per-barrel slide in Brent was the most visible reaction, but equities also benefited meaningfully. Stocks rose multiple times throughout May and June as traders repeatedly recalibrated their assumptions about Middle Eastern risk.
