Market Snapshot
The “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30” market is priced at 8% YES, up sharply from 3% just 24 hours ago. The “US Invasion of Iran before 2027” market sits at 26.5% YES, rising from 18% yesterday.
Key Takeaways
Reported fortification of Kharg Island appears consistent with NO outcome support on the control-change market, as defensive measures reduce the likelihood of a successful seizure by June 30.
The broader escalation context suggests markets view a full US invasion scenario as more plausible, with the invasion market up roughly 8 points in 24 hours.
