Nomura Holdings just told investors to stop holding their breath for Chinese monetary easing. The firm pushed its forecasts for both a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and a policy rate cut in China all the way out to 2027, scrapping earlier expectations that both would arrive this year.
The revision, made on April 29, 2026, marks a notable shift. Nomura had previously penciled in a 50-basis-point RRR reduction for Q2 2026 and a 10-basis-point policy rate cut for Q4 2026. Now, neither is expected to materialize until next year at the earliest.
Why Beijing’s confidence is everyone else’s patience
The catalyst for Nomura’s recalibration is straightforward: China’s Politburo has been telegraphing that it feels pretty good about where the economy sits. Recent communications from the top leadership body suggest a growing confidence in economic stability, which translates directly into less urgency to deploy fresh stimulus.
Nomura is not alone in reading the room this way. Goldman Sachs and other global banks have similarly softened their easing outlooks in response to the same Politburo signals.
