The Federal Reserve isn’t cutting rates anytime soon. That’s the increasingly unified message from Wall Street’s top economists, who now expect the central bank to keep its policy rate locked in place through the end of 2026, with any relief potentially delayed until 2027.
Goldman Sachs revised its rate cut timeline to June and December 2027, pushed back from its previous forecast of December 2026 and March 2027. J.P. Morgan went a step further, projecting the Fed will hold steady through all of 2026 and potentially hike by 25 basis points in September 2027.
The numbers behind the hawkish shift
A Reuters poll conducted from June 4 to June 9 painted a stark picture of consensus. Out of 102 economists surveyed, 72 expect no rate change for the remainder of 2026. Not a single respondent forecasted a cut at the June FOMC meeting. That’s nearly 70% of the field saying the federal funds rate will stay parked in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
TD Economics raised its 2026 core PCE forecast to 3.3%, up sharply from 2.7%. The FOMC itself, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, bumped its median core PCE inflation projection for 2026 to 3.3% at the June 16-17 meeting. The adjusted expected funds rate landed at 3.8%.
