Goldman Sachs has officially moved the goalposts on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The bank now expects the first reduction won’t arrive until June 2027, a meaningful delay from its prior call of December 2026.
The catalyst: a May 2026 jobs report that made a mockery of Wall Street expectations. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, roughly double the consensus estimate of 80,000 to 89,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
What Goldman is actually forecasting
David Mericle, Goldman’s chief US economist, laid out the revised timeline. The bank now expects two 25 basis point cuts in 2027, one in June and another in December. That’s a combined 50 basis points of easing, but not until next year at the earliest.
Previously, Goldman had penciled in cuts for December 2026 and March 2027. The new forecast effectively wipes 2026 clean of any monetary policy relief.
