Market Snapshot
The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15” market is currently priced at 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” market shows a 26.5% YES probability, reflecting recent shifts in sentiment.
Key Takeaways
Trump’s directive appears to be consistent with increased likelihood of safe ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market pricing suggests participants view the directive as supportive of traffic normalization by July 31.
