The United States now relies heavily on private launchers for its space access. Last year, 94% of all US launches were done by SpaceX. The rise of private spacefaring has driven a fall in launch costs, says Terzi.
The average cost of launching a kilogram of cargo into low Earth orbit has plummeted in recent years, falling from $15,000 per kilo in the early 2000s to just $4,000 by 2025, according to previous work by Terzi and colleagues.
While, historically, space launch vehicles were one and done, the advent of reusable technology, spearheaded by SpaceX from 2016 onwards, changed the market: more launches meant operational refinement and lower costs.
SpaceX also “manufactured its own demand” by building Starlink: thousands of satellites – and hundreds of rocket launches – to provide broadband in remote areas. Competitors lack both reusable systems and this self-perpetuating market.
“Each successful mission allows SpaceX to become faster and more cost-effective, pushing competitors further to the periphery each year”
